Data-driven analysis of the fastest growing and declining ZIP codes in America

The American migration landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation. The remote work revolution, accelerated by the pandemic, has freed millions of workers from geographic constraints. Combined with rising costs in traditional urban centers, changing climate concerns, and evolving lifestyle priorities, Americans are voting with their feet—and the data tells a compelling story.
This comprehensive analysis examines population growth patterns across thousands of ZIP codes to reveal where Americans are moving in 2025, which areas are experiencing decline, and most importantly—why these shifts are happening.
Data Methodology Note: Rankings and statistics in this article combine official U.S. government data (Census Bureau for demographics/housing, NOAA for weather, FBI for crime) with modeled estimates for schools and some economic indicators. While we strive for accuracy, specific figures should be verified with official sources for critical decisions. Learn more about our data sources and methodology.
| Rank | ZIP | Location | Growth | Population | Median Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 83716 | Boise, ID | +12.4% | 47,820 | $68,900 |
| 2 | 78738 | Austin, TX | +11.8% | 52,100 | $112,300 |
| 3 | 85142 | Queen Creek, AZ | +11.2% | 45,680 | $89,200 |
| 4 | 34787 | Winter Garden, FL | +10.9% | 38,950 | $71,500 |
| 5 | 37122 | Mount Juliet, TN | +10.5% | 41,230 | $87,600 |
| 6 | 29485 | Summerville, SC | +10.2% | 39,870 | $72,400 |
| 7 | 75035 | Frisco, TX | +9.9% | 58,920 | $118,700 |
| 8 | 28105 | Matthews, NC | +9.6% | 34,560 | $95,300 |
| 9 | 84095 | South Jordan, UT | +9.4% | 42,180 | $94,800 |
| 10 | 33647 | Tampa, FL | +9.1% | 48,760 | $76,900 |
| 11 | 89521 | Reno, NV | +8.9% | 35,420 | $68,200 |
| 12 | 85375 | Sun City, AZ | +8.7% | 31,290 | $52,300 |
| 13 | 32828 | Orlando, FL | +8.5% | 44,780 | $63,400 |
| 14 | 77494 | Katy, TX | +8.3% | 56,320 | $103,600 |
| 15 | 30115 | Canton, GA | +8.2% | 29,640 | $81,700 |
| 16 | 86314 | Prescott Valley, AZ | +8.0% | 33,850 | $58,900 |
| 17 | 78640 | Kyle, TX | +7.9% | 38,420 | $79,500 |
| 18 | 37211 | Nashville, TN | +7.7% | 47,890 | $54,600 |
| 19 | 32836 | Orlando, FL | +7.6% | 41,230 | $58,700 |
| 20 | 29483 | Summerville, SC | +7.5% | 28,950 | $69,800 |
| 21 | 78645 | Leander, TX | +7.4% | 45,670 | $92,400 |
| 22 | 85375 | Sun City West, AZ | +7.2% | 27,350 | $54,800 |
| 23 | 76179 | Fort Worth, TX | +7.1% | 52,480 | $87,300 |
| 24 | 28562 | New Bern, NC | +7.0% | 24,690 | $51,200 |
| 25 | 89014 | Henderson, NV | +6.9% | 49,870 | $78,600 |
+12.4% Growth
Boise has become the poster child of pandemic-era migration. With its combination of outdoor recreation access, affordable housing (relatively speaking), and tech-friendly business environment, the Idaho capital attracts remote workers and companies alike. Major tech firms have opened satellite offices here, and the quality of life—hiking, skiing, river access—appeals to young professionals fleeing California\'s high costs.
+11.8% Growth
Austin\'s western suburbs continue explosive growth as tech giants like Tesla, Oracle, and Google expand their presence. The 78738 ZIP code offers proximity to downtown while maintaining a suburban feel with excellent schools. Texas\'s lack of state income tax saves high earners tens of thousands annually, making the move from California financially attractive despite rising home prices.
+11.2% Growth
This Phoenix suburb exemplifies planned community growth done right. Master-planned developments offer new construction at prices far below California, Nevada offers sunshine year-round, and the area attracts families seeking space and quality of life. With Phoenix metro\'s growing job market and remote work flexibility, Queen Creek has become a magnet for California expatriates.
+10.9% Growth
Florida\'s population boom extends beyond Miami and Tampa. Winter Garden, near Orlando, combines small-town charm with big-city access. Retirees appreciate no state income tax on their Social Security and pensions, while younger families benefit from good schools and theme park proximity. The influx of Northeast transplants continues unabated.
+10.5% Growth
Nashville\'s eastern suburbs benefit from Music City\'s booming economy, healthcare sector growth, and cultural renaissance. Mount Juliet offers suburban tranquility with a 30-minute commute to downtown, no state income tax, and home prices still (relatively) affordable compared to major metros. The area attracts young professionals and families from high-tax states like California, New York, and Illinois.
| Rank | ZIP | Location | Decline | Population | Primary Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10004 | Manhattan, NY | -5.2% | 3,240 | High costs, COVID exodus, remote work shift |
| 2 | 48226 | Detroit, MI | -4.8% | 4,120 | Economic decline, job losses, urban challenges |
| 3 | 60607 | Chicago, IL | -4.5% | 28,450 | High taxes, crime concerns, cold weather |
| 4 | 94102 | San Francisco, CA | -4.3% | 31,670 | Cost of living, homelessness, tech exodus |
| 5 | 11201 | Brooklyn, NY | -3.9% | 45,290 | Cost pressures, remote work opportunities |
| 6 | 19148 | Philadelphia, PA | -3.7% | 38,650 | Crime rates, economic stagnation, aging population |
| 7 | 44113 | Cleveland, OH | -3.5% | 12,480 | Rust Belt decline, job market challenges |
| 8 | 90012 | Los Angeles, CA | -3.4% | 24,680 | Cost of living, quality of life concerns |
| 9 | 02108 | Boston, MA | -3.2% | 6,890 | Housing costs, weather, remote work flexibility |
| 10 | 15222 | Pittsburgh, PA | -3.1% | 8,930 | Limited job growth, outmigration |
| 11 | 53202 | Milwaukee, WI | -2.9% | 4,560 | Cold climate, economic challenges |
| 12 | 14202 | Buffalo, NY | -2.8% | 5,230 | Weather, limited opportunities, rust belt legacy |
| 13 | 63101 | St. Louis, MO | -2.7% | 3,890 | Crime concerns, economic stagnation |
| 14 | 21201 | Baltimore, MD | -2.6% | 7,650 | Crime rates, economic challenges, outmigration |
| 15 | 07102 | Newark, NJ | -2.5% | 18,940 | Urban challenges, high costs, NYC proximity |
| 16 | 06103 | Hartford, CT | -2.4% | 12,450 | Economic decline, insurance industry contraction |
| 17 | 48201 | Detroit, MI | -2.3% | 6,780 | Continued rust belt challenges |
| 18 | 10013 | Manhattan, NY | -2.2% | 19,870 | Post-COVID adjustment, high rents |
| 19 | 60606 | Chicago, IL | -2.1% | 8,450 | Business district depopulation, remote work |
| 20 | 33602 | Tampa, FL | -2.0% | 11,230 | Urban core shifts to suburban growth |
Texas, Florida, Arizona, Tennessee, and the Carolinas dominate growth. These states combine:
New York, Illinois, California, Michigan, and Pennsylvania lead outmigration:
California is losing residents overall—but it\'s not uniform. The Bay Area and Los Angeles see significant outmigration, while some inland and Southern California ZIP codes actually grow. The exodus is primarily driven by:
Destinations for California leavers: Austin, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Boise, and Dallas top the list.
The single biggest driver of migration trends. With 35-40% of professional workers now fully or partially remote, geographic constraints have evaporated. A software engineer can earn a Silicon Valley salary while living in Boise with 60% lower housing costs. Companies embracing remote work—and some relocating headquarters to tax-friendly states—accelerate this trend.
A $1.5M home in the Bay Area costs $400K in Austin and $300K in Nashville. For families, this isn\'t just a financial decision—it\'s life-changing. The ability to own a home with a yard versus renting a cramped apartment drives millions to relocate. States with lower property taxes and no income tax amplify savings.
Retirees and remote workers increasingly prioritize warm weather and sunshine. The growth of Florida, Arizona, and Texas is partly driven by people tired of harsh winters. Conversely, some professionals leave the South\'s intense heat for temperate climates like Denver or Portland. Climate change concerns also factor into long-term relocation decisions.
States with no income tax—Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Nevada, Washington—have massive appeal to high earners. A couple earning $300K combined saves $25K+ annually by moving from California to Texas. Property taxes vary, but the income tax savings alone drive six-figure earners to relocate. Retirees particularly benefit, protecting Social Security and pension income.
Rising crime rates in some urban centers, homelessness concerns, and declining urban amenities push families to suburbs or different states entirely. School quality, safety, and community feel matter immensely to parents. Suburban growth in Sunbelt states offers new construction, master-planned communities, and perceived safety advantages.
Rapid population growth creates intense housing demand. Boise, Austin, Phoenix, and Nashville have seen 30-50% home price increases in 3-4 years. This creates wealth for early movers but affordability crises for locals. Rent increases follow, pricing out service workers and creating housing shortages.
Conversely, declining cities face falling property values, tax base erosion, and difficulty funding services. Detroit, parts of Chicago, and rust belt cities struggle with vacant properties and diminishing resources.
Boom towns face strained schools, congested roads, and overwhelmed utilities. Austin and Boise grapple with infrastructure built for smaller populations. Water scarcity concerns loom in Phoenix and Las Vegas as populations surge.
Large-scale migration from California and New York to Texas, Florida, and other states brings political and cultural changes. Austin and Nashville have transformed from conservative strongholds to progressive metros, reflecting influxes of coastal transplants.
Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Tennessee will keep growing, but at more moderate rates as housing costs rise and infrastructure strains emerge.
As Austin and Nashville become expensive, growth shifts to smaller cities: Chattanooga, Knoxville, Tucson, El Paso, and Fort Wayne attract value-seekers.
Return-to-office mandates slow migration slightly, but remote work is permanent for many industries. Hybrid models favor proximity to airports and secondary hubs.
Extreme heat in Arizona, water scarcity, and hurricane risks may slow Sunbelt growth. Climate-resilient cities in the Midwest and Mountain West could benefit.
Despite outmigration, San Francisco, LA, and NYC retain appeal for certain industries and demographics. Home prices stay high due to constrained supply.
Curious about a specific growth or declining market? Our detailed ZIP code pages provide demographics, housing data, school ratings, crime statistics, and more. Use our comparison tool to evaluate multiple areas side-by-side.
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